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analysis Jun 01, 2026 by cs2predict

Model of the Week W22 → W23, 2026 — SQUAD (60.9%)

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 23 · May 25 – May 31, 2026

Models ranked

380

Predictions

Matches

60.9%

Best accuracy

0.2732

Brier Score

0.8257

Log Loss

This week (Week 23 · May 25 – May 31, 2026) we analyzed 23 top-tier CS2 matches across 24 prediction models. SQUAD dominated with 60.9% accuracy (14/23 correct), ahead of MIND at 50.0%. SQUAD achieved a Brier Score of 0.2732 and Log Loss of 0.8257.

🏆 Model of the Week: SQUAD

SQUAD edged out the competition this week, though accuracy across all models was moderate.

🥇

SQUAD

Player ratings

SQUAD showed decent performance with 60.9% accuracy across 23 predictions (14 correct, 9 wrong).

60.9%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W22: 60.9% (23)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	SQUAD	60.9%	23	14	9
#2	MIND	50.0%	18	9	9
#3	XGPRO	50.0%	16	8	8
#4	MAJOR	50.0%	16	8	8
#5	WR10	50.0%	14	7	7
#6	OPEN	47.1%	17	8	9
#7	WR10P	47.1%	17	8	9
#8	NEXUS	45.5%	11	5	6
#9	WR10C	42.9%	21	9	12
#10	SOS	42.1%	19	8	11
#11	HIGH-ORACLE	41.7%	12	5	7
#12	ELOFACE	40.0%	20	8	12
#13	PHANTOM	40.0%	20	8	12
#14	STRONGHOLD	40.0%	5	2	3
#15	APEX	39.1%	23	9	14
#16	TIER	37.5%	8	3	5
#17	TIER2	37.5%	8	3	5
#18	ELO	36.4%	22	8	14
#19	EAGLE	36.4%	22	8	14
#20	FORM	35.0%	20	7	13
#21	ORACLE	33.3%	21	7	14
#22	TIER3	33.3%	3	1	2
#23	ELOHQ	30.8%	13	4	9
#24	STREAK	27.3%	11	3	8

🎮 SQUAD Predictions This Week

14/23 correct predictions on top-tier matches.

MATCH	PREDICTION	RESULT
FOKUS 2-1 Nemiga	90% FOKUS	CORRECT
Gentle Mates 0-2 Nemesis	81% Nemesis	CORRECT
TDK 2-1 OG	71% OG	WRONG
100 Thieves 1-2 Nemesis	67% Nemesis	CORRECT
magic 1-2 Ninjas in Pyjamas	72% Ninjas in	CORRECT
FOKUS 2-1 fnatic	77% FOKUS	CORRECT
Gentle Mates 2-0 GenOne	89% Gentle Mat	CORRECT
Ninjas in Pyjamas 2-0 FaZe	67% Ninjas in	CORRECT
Tricked 0-2 Nemiga	89% Nemiga	CORRECT
Gentle Mates 2-1 Eternal Fire	79% Gentle Mat	CORRECT
FaZe 2-0 Sharks	70% Sharks	WRONG
9z 1-2 FaZe	68% FaZe	CORRECT
Nemesis 2-3 TDK	88% Nemesis	WRONG
magic 2-1 FaZe	56% FaZe	WRONG
HEROIC 1-2 9z	72% HEROIC	WRONG
3DMAX 1-2 Alliance	93% 3DMAX	WRONG
9z 1-2 Sharks	83% Sharks	CORRECT
Eternal Fire 2-1 fnatic	77% fnatic	WRONG
FaZe 2-0 Alliance	61% Alliance	WRONG
Gentle Mates 2-0 ALGO	73% Gentle Mat	CORRECT
HEROIC 0-2 Ninjas in Pyjamas	64% Ninjas in	CORRECT
3DMAX 0-2 magic	96% 3DMAX	WRONG
fnatic 2-0 Rune Eaters	64% fnatic	CORRECT

🤔 Why every model struggled this week

60.9% as the best model is the lowest weekly leader we've ever recorded on cs2predict.gg — normal weeks see the top model land between 75% and 85%. The drop wasn't a data glitch (we verified every match against HLTV directly). It was a real upset wave driven by an unusually packed tournament calendar.

Three top-tier events ran in parallel this stretch:

CS Asia Championships 2026
IEM Atlanta 2026
PGL Astana 2026

Plus Major qualifiers leading into Cologne. Top organisations split rosters, tested experimental lineups, and showed visible signs of late-season fatigue. The result: 7 matches where every single one of 18–22 active models was wrong.

The 7 matches that broke the week

Match	Tournament	What happened
MongolZ vs B8	CS Asia Championships	B8 won 2-1 (huge upset)
MIBR vs PARIVISION	CS Asia Championships	MIBR ran out 2-0
NaVi vs Vitality	IEM Atlanta	NaVi took it 2-1
B8 vs FUT	IEM Atlanta	B8 won 2-0 again
PARIVISION vs G2	PGL Astana	G2 needed 3 maps
PARIVISION vs 9z	PGL Astana	9z swept 2-0
Aurora vs HEROIC	PGL Astana	HEROIC took it 2-0

The pattern: B8 (Ukrainian Tier-2) and PARIVISION (rising Russian roster) were involved in 5 of 7 of these matches. B8 ran the Cinderella story — taking down both MongolZ AND FUT in the same week.

Why SQUAD held up better

When ELO-based, rank-based, and form-based models all converge on the same prediction and are all wrong, the only model that can stand out is one looking at something different. SQUAD does exactly that: it weights individual player ratings rather than team-level rank.

For a week dominated by:

Rosters with new players (player ratings hadn't caught up to team rank)
Substitute lineups (team rank was misleading)
Tier-2 squads with strong individuals punching above their rank

SQUAD's player-first approach happened to fit. 60.9% isn't great absolutely — it's just that team-based models did far worse, because their signals were polluted by mid-tournament roster changes.

What this means going forward

CS2's 2026 calendar is more packed than ever. When 3+ tournaments overlap, expect lower model agreement, more upsets in matches where rosters changed mid-week, and player-based models (SQUAD, WR10) gaining a temporary edge.

We're not adjusting any model weights based on a single week — that would be classic over-fitting. But it's a useful reminder: models are statistical, not magical. Stable meta produces high accuracy. Chaotic weeks produce chaotic predictions.

Major Cologne Stage 1 kicks off this week (June 2). It'll be interesting to see how models behave once the scene refocuses on one big event.

analysis Jun 01, 2026 by cs2predict

Top Models May → June 2026 — STRONGHOLD leads at 78.4%

Monthly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · June 2026

Models ranked

2456

Total predictions

139

Matches tracked

78.4%

Best accuracy

Based on May 2026 data, we tracked 139 top-tier CS2 matches across 26 prediction models with a total of 2456 predictions. The average model accuracy was 64.0%, with a spread of 27.6% between the best and worst performing models.

🏆 Top 3 Models of the Month

STRONGHOLD takes the top spot with 78.4% accuracy, followed by TIER3 at 75.4% and TIER at 72.0%.

🥇

STRONGHOLD

ELO + SOS both >60% same direction

STRONGHOLD showed excellent performance with 78.4% accuracy across 37 predictions (29 correct, 8 wrong). Best week: W18 at 100.0%, weakest: W22 at 40.0%.

78.4%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W18: 100.0% (3)W19: 100.0% (8)W20: 81.8% (11)W21: 70.0% (10)W22: 40.0% (5)

🥈

TIER3

Top-teams ELO v3

TIER3 showed excellent performance with 75.4% accuracy across 57 predictions (43 correct, 14 wrong). Best week: W18 at 100.0%, weakest: W22 at 33.3%.

75.4%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W18: 100.0% (4)W19: 75.0% (12)W20: 80.0% (20)W21: 72.2% (18)W22: 33.3% (3)

🥉

TIER

ELO for top-30 teams

TIER showed strong performance with 72.0% accuracy across 75 predictions (54 correct, 21 wrong). Best week: W18 at 80.0%, weakest: W22 at 37.5%.

72.0%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W18: 80.0% (5)W19: 78.6% (14)W20: 80.0% (25)W21: 69.6% (23)W22: 37.5% (8)

📊 Full Monthly Leaderboard

Below is the complete ranking of all models. Models highlighted in blue are in the top 3. The bar chart shows relative performance at a glance.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	STRONGHOLD	78.4%	37	29	8
#2	TIER3	75.4%	57	43	14
#3	TIER	72.0%	75	54	21
#4	TIER2	71.8%	78	56	22
#5	TRIBUNAL	70.4%	27	19	8
#6	WR10	68.6%	102	70	32
#7	SENTINEL	66.7%	9	6	3
#8	WR10C	65.6%	131	86	45
#9	ELOHQ	65.6%	96	63	33
#10	WR10P	63.4%	123	78	45
#11	NEXUS	63.3%	49	31	18
#12	SQUAD	63.2%	133	84	49
#13	OPEN	63.1%	111	70	41
#14	ELOFACE	62.5%	128	80	48
#15	XGPRO	62.4%	85	53	32
#16	MAJOR	62.4%	85	53	32
#17	ELO	61.8%	131	81	50
#18	STREAK	61.8%	76	47	29
#19	HIGH-ORACLE	61.4%	57	35	22
#20	MIND	60.2%	113	68	45
#21	PHANTOM	59.5%	126	75	51
#22	FORM	59.2%	120	71	49
#23	APEX	59.0%	134	79	55
#24	SOS	59.0%	122	72	50
#25	ORACLE	56.6%	129	73	56
#26	EAGLE	50.8%	122	62	60

analysis May 25, 2026 by cs2predict

Model of the Week W21 → W22, 2026 — WR10P (75.8%)

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 22 · May 18 – May 24, 2026

Models ranked

648

Predictions

Matches

75.8%

Best accuracy

0.1981

Brier Score

0.5864

Log Loss

This week (Week 22 · May 18 – May 24, 2026) we analyzed 34 top-tier CS2 matches across 25 prediction models. WR10P dominated with 75.8% accuracy (25/33 correct), ahead of TRIBUNAL at 75.0%. WR10P achieved a Brier Score of 0.1981 and Log Loss of 0.5864.

🏆 Model of the Week: WR10P

WR10P had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 25 out of 33 matches.

🥇

WR10P

Pure win rate vs top-10

WR10P showed excellent performance with 75.8% accuracy across 33 predictions (25 correct, 8 wrong).

75.8%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W21: 75.8% (33)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	WR10P	75.8%	33	25	8
#2	TRIBUNAL	75.0%	16	12	4
#3	WR10	74.1%	27	20	7
#4	TIER3	72.2%	18	13	5
#5	STRONGHOLD	70.0%	10	7	3
#6	NEXUS	70.0%	10	7	3
#7	ORACLE	69.7%	33	23	10
#8	TIER	69.6%	23	16	7
#9	TIER2	69.6%	23	16	7
#10	PHANTOM	69.0%	29	20	9
#11	WR10C	68.8%	32	22	10
#12	ELOHQ	68.0%	25	17	8
#13	APEX	66.7%	33	22	11
#14	SOS	66.7%	30	20	10
#15	STREAK	65.2%	23	15	8
#16	FORM	64.5%	31	20	11
#17	MIND	64.3%	28	18	10
#18	ELO	63.6%	33	21	12
#19	ELOFACE	63.6%	33	21	12
#20	EAGLE	63.3%	30	19	11
#21	XGPRO	63.0%	27	17	10
#22	MAJOR	63.0%	27	17	10
#23	OPEN	62.1%	29	18	11
#24	HIGH-ORACLE	61.5%	13	8	5
#25	SQUAD	56.2%	32	18	14

🎮 WR10P Predictions This Week

25/33 correct predictions on top-tier matches.

MATCH	PREDICTION	RESULT
EYEBALLERS 1-2 Alliance	62% Alliance	CORRECT
Wildcard 2-1 FOKUS	73% FOKUS	WRONG
FOKUS 2-1 Inner Circle	62% FOKUS	CORRECT
Falcons 1-3 Legacy	55% Legacy	CORRECT
MOUZ 2-0 MIBR	53% MOUZ	CORRECT
Alliance 0-2 EYEBALLERS	62% Alliance	WRONG
MIBR 0-2 Legacy	55% Legacy	CORRECT
Legacy 2-1 The MongolZ	60% Legacy	CORRECT
B8 0-2 MOUZ	63% MOUZ	CORRECT
The MongolZ 2-0 PARIVISION	63% PARIVISION	WRONG
MOUZ 2-0 paiN	71% MOUZ	CORRECT
MIBR 2-1 B8	61% MIBR	CORRECT
Falcons 2-0 Legacy	58% Legacy	WRONG
TYLOO 1-2 paiN	56% paiN	CORRECT
PARIVISION 2-0 Lynn Vision	65% PARIVISION	CORRECT
The MongolZ 2-1 Liquid	66% The Mongol	CORRECT
M80 1-2 MOUZ	77% MOUZ	CORRECT
Lynn Vision 2-1 Ninjas in Pyjamas	62% Lynn Visio	CORRECT
BC.Game 0-2 paiN	56% paiN	CORRECT
3DMAX 1-2 Liquid	58% 3DMAX	WRONG
NRG 1-2 MOUZ	77% MOUZ	CORRECT
Legacy 2-0 TYLOO	73% Legacy	CORRECT
Falcons 2-0 M80	65% Falcons	CORRECT
The MongolZ 1-2 B8	53% The Mongol	WRONG
MIBR 2-0 PARIVISION	53% PARIVISION	WRONG
Falcons 13-11 BC.Game	71% Falcons	CORRECT
paiN 8-13 M80	54% M80	CORRECT
Legacy 13-10 NRG	73% Legacy	CORRECT
MOUZ 7-13 TYLOO	77% MOUZ	WRONG
B8 13-9 Ninjas in Pyjamas	62% B8	CORRECT
The MongolZ 13-3 Lynn Vision	55% The Mongol	CORRECT
3DMAX 9-13 MIBR	67% MIBR	CORRECT
PARIVISION 13-9 Liquid	75% PARIVISION	CORRECT

analysis May 18, 2026 by cs2predict

Model of the Week W20 → W21, 2026 — STRONGHOLD (81.8%)

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 21 · May 11 – May 17, 2026

Models ranked

958

Predictions

Matches

81.8%

Best accuracy

0.1542

Brier Score

0.4943

Log Loss

This week (Week 21 · May 11 – May 17, 2026) we analyzed 57 top-tier CS2 matches across 25 prediction models. STRONGHOLD dominated with 81.8% accuracy (9/11 correct), ahead of TIER at 80.0%. STRONGHOLD achieved a Brier Score of 0.1542 and Log Loss of 0.4943.

🏆 Model of the Week: STRONGHOLD

STRONGHOLD had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 9 out of 11 matches.

🥇

STRONGHOLD

ELO + SOS both >60% same direction

STRONGHOLD showed excellent performance with 81.8% accuracy across 11 predictions (9 correct, 2 wrong).

81.8%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W20: 81.8% (11)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	STRONGHOLD	81.8%	11	9	2
#2	TIER	80.0%	25	20	5
#3	TIER3	80.0%	20	16	4
#4	TIER2	77.8%	27	21	6
#5	WR10	75.0%	44	33	11
#6	MIND	70.2%	47	33	14
#7	WR10C	69.8%	53	37	16
#8	ELOHQ	69.4%	36	25	11
#9	OPEN	68.1%	47	32	15
#10	WR10P	66.7%	51	34	17
#11	TRIBUNAL	66.7%	9	6	3
#12	SQUAD	66.0%	53	35	18
#13	FORM	65.3%	49	32	17
#14	XGPRO	64.5%	31	20	11
#15	MAJOR	64.5%	31	20	11
#16	STREAK	63.6%	33	21	12
#17	ELO	63.5%	52	33	19
#18	ELOFACE	62.7%	51	32	19
#19	SOS	55.1%	49	27	22
#20	APEX	52.8%	53	28	25
#21	PHANTOM	52.8%	53	28	25
#22	HIGH-ORACLE	52.6%	19	10	9
#23	NEXUS	50.0%	16	8	8
#24	ORACLE	47.1%	51	24	27
#25	EAGLE	40.4%	47	19	28

🎮 STRONGHOLD Predictions This Week

9/11 correct predictions on top-tier matches.

MATCH	PREDICTION	RESULT
GamerLegion 0-3 Natus Vincere	68% Natus Vinc	CORRECT
BetBoom 0-2 Natus Vincere	77% Natus Vinc	CORRECT
B8 0-2 Vitality	80% Vitality	CORRECT
SINNERS 0-2 Astralis	70% Astralis	CORRECT
FaZe 0-2 Vitality	81% Vitality	CORRECT
BetBoom 2-1 Vitality	83% Vitality	WRONG
Natus Vincere 2-1 GamerLegion	69% Natus Vinc	CORRECT
Monte 2-1 The Huns	67% Monte	CORRECT
HEROIC 1-2 magic	62% HEROIC	WRONG
Natus Vincere 2-0 Passion UA	74% Natus Vinc	CORRECT
Vitality 2-0 BC.Game	84% Vitality	CORRECT

analysis May 11, 2026 by cs2predict

Model of the Week W19 → W20, 2026 — STRONGHOLD (100.0%)

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 20 · May 04 – May 10, 2026

Models ranked

304

Predictions

Matches

100.0%

Best accuracy

0.0677

Brier Score

0.2985

Log Loss

This week (Week 20 · May 04 – May 10, 2026) we analyzed 16 top-tier CS2 matches across 25 prediction models. STRONGHOLD dominated with 100.0% accuracy (8/8 correct), ahead of HIGH-ORACLE at 100.0%. STRONGHOLD achieved a Brier Score of 0.0677 and Log Loss of 0.2985.

🏆 Model of the Week: STRONGHOLD

STRONGHOLD had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 8 out of 8 matches.

🥇

STRONGHOLD

ELO + SOS both >60% same direction

STRONGHOLD showed excellent performance with 100.0% accuracy across 8 predictions (8 correct, 0 wrong).

100.0%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W19: 100.0% (8)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	STRONGHOLD	100.0%	8	8	0
#2	HIGH-ORACLE	100.0%	7	7	0
#3	NEXUS	100.0%	7	7	0
#4	SENTINEL	100.0%	5	5	0
#5	ELO	81.2%	16	13	3
#6	ELOFACE	81.2%	16	13	3
#7	WR10C	81.2%	16	13	3
#8	APEX	81.2%	16	13	3
#9	PHANTOM	81.2%	16	13	3
#10	ORACLE	80.0%	15	12	3
#11	TIER2	80.0%	15	12	3
#12	ELOHQ	80.0%	15	12	3
#13	TIER	78.6%	14	11	3
#14	EAGLE	75.0%	16	12	4
#15	TIER3	75.0%	12	9	3
#16	XGPRO	71.4%	7	5	2
#17	MAJOR	71.4%	7	5	2
#18	SQUAD	68.8%	16	11	5
#19	SOS	66.7%	15	10	5
#20	FORM	66.7%	12	8	4
#21	STREAK	66.7%	3	2	1
#22	OPEN	60.0%	10	6	4
#23	WR10	54.5%	11	6	5
#24	WR10P	50.0%	16	8	8
#25	MIND	23.1%	13	3	10

🎮 STRONGHOLD Predictions This Week

8/8 correct predictions on top-tier matches.

MATCH	PREDICTION	RESULT
Monte 2-0 magic	65% Monte	CORRECT
PARIVISION 2-0 Fisher College	75% PARIVISION	CORRECT
Aurora 2-0 The Huns	76% Aurora	CORRECT
Falcons 2-0 K27	78% Falcons	CORRECT
Spirit 2-0 The Huns	79% Spirit	CORRECT
MOUZ 2-1 Gentle Mates	72% MOUZ	CORRECT
The MongolZ 2-0 magic	76% The Mongol	CORRECT
G2 2-0 Fisher College	73% G2	CORRECT

analysis May 04, 2026 by cs2predict

Top Models April → May 2026 — TRIBUNAL leads at 100.0%

Monthly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · May 2026

Models ranked

2520

Total predictions

174

Matches tracked

100.0%

Best accuracy

Based on April 2026 data, we tracked 174 top-tier CS2 matches across 27 prediction models with a total of 2520 predictions. The average model accuracy was 72.3%, with a spread of 53.0% between the best and worst performing models.

🏆 Top 3 Models of the Month

TRIBUNAL takes the top spot with 100.0% accuracy, followed by NEXUS at 97.1% and SENTINEL at 92.3%.

🥇

TRIBUNAL

OPEN + PRO + ORACLE all >55% same direction

TRIBUNAL showed excellent performance with 100.0% accuracy across 20 predictions (20 correct, 0 wrong).

100.0%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W14: 100.0% (9)W15: 100.0% (5)W16: 100.0% (4)W18: 100.0% (2)

🥈

NEXUS

APEX + ORACLE both >65% same direction

NEXUS showed excellent performance with 97.1% accuracy across 35 predictions (34 correct, 1 wrong). Best week: W14 at 100.0%, weakest: W18 at 75.0%.

97.1%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W14: 100.0% (10)W15: 100.0% (2)W16: 100.0% (10)W17: 100.0% (9)W18: 75.0% (4)

🥉

SENTINEL

Anti-signal: SOS >60% confirmed by Mind anti-prediction

SENTINEL showed excellent performance with 92.3% accuracy across 26 predictions (24 correct, 2 wrong). Best week: W15 at 100.0%, weakest: W14 at 90.5%.

92.3%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W14: 90.5% (21)W15: 100.0% (1)W16: 100.0% (1)W17: 100.0% (3)

📊 Full Monthly Leaderboard

Below is the complete ranking of all models. Models highlighted in blue are in the top 3. The bar chart shows relative performance at a glance.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	TRIBUNAL	100.0%	20	20	0
#2	NEXUS	97.1%	35	34	1
#3	SENTINEL	92.3%	26	24	2
#4	STRONGHOLD	91.1%	45	41	4
#5	TIER3	86.4%	44	38	6
#6	VANGUARD	85.7%	14	12	2
#7	HIGH-ORACLE	85.3%	34	29	5
#8	TIER	82.7%	75	62	13
#9	ELOHQ	79.8%	94	75	19
#10	TIER2	78.3%	83	65	18
#11	ORACLE	74.7%	91	68	23
#12	APEX	73.9%	92	68	24
#13	SOS	73.5%	136	100	36
#14	PHANTOM	73.3%	90	66	24
#15	ELOFACE	70.0%	130	91	39
#16	ELO	68.5%	143	98	45
#17	STREAK	65.6%	90	59	31
#18	WR10	63.7%	113	72	41
#19	EAGLE	62.6%	91	57	34
#20	MAJOR	61.2%	116	71	45
#21	XGPRO	60.9%	115	70	45
#22	WR10C	60.3%	156	94	62
#23	OPEN	60.3%	131	79	52
#24	SQUAD	57.2%	166	95	71
#25	FORM	50.4%	133	67	66
#26	WR10P	49.6%	125	62	63
#27	MIND	47.0%	132	62	70

analysis May 04, 2026 by cs2predict

Model of the Week W18 → W19, 2026 — STRONGHOLD (100.0%)

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 19 · Apr 27 – May 03, 2026

Models ranked

352

Predictions

Matches

100.0%

Best accuracy

0.0822

Brier Score

0.334

Log Loss

This week (Week 19 · Apr 27 – May 03, 2026) we analyzed 20 top-tier CS2 matches across 24 prediction models. STRONGHOLD dominated with 100.0% accuracy (7/7 correct), ahead of STREAK at 91.7%. STRONGHOLD achieved a Brier Score of 0.0822 and Log Loss of 0.334.

🏆 Model of the Week: STRONGHOLD

STRONGHOLD had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 7 out of 7 matches.

🥇

STRONGHOLD

ELO + SOS both >60% same direction

STRONGHOLD showed excellent performance with 100.0% accuracy across 7 predictions (7 correct, 0 wrong).

100.0%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W18: 100.0% (7)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	STRONGHOLD	100.0%	7	7	0
#2	STREAK	91.7%	12	11	1
#3	TIER3	77.8%	9	7	2
#4	XGPRO	77.8%	9	7	2
#5	MAJOR	77.8%	9	7	2
#6	NEXUS	77.8%	9	7	2
#7	ELO	76.5%	17	13	4
#8	ELOFACE	75.0%	16	12	4
#9	TIER	75.0%	12	9	3
#10	TIER2	75.0%	12	9	3
#11	SOS	73.7%	19	14	5
#12	APEX	72.2%	18	13	5
#13	ELOHQ	71.4%	14	10	4
#14	WR10	71.4%	14	10	4
#15	SQUAD	70.0%	20	14	6
#16	HIGH-ORACLE	70.0%	10	7	3
#17	OPEN	68.4%	19	13	6
#18	MIND	66.7%	18	12	6
#19	PHANTOM	66.7%	18	12	6
#20	ORACLE	63.2%	19	12	7
#21	WR10C	60.0%	20	12	8
#22	WR10P	60.0%	15	9	6
#23	FORM	57.9%	19	11	8
#24	EAGLE	41.2%	17	7	10

🎮 STRONGHOLD Predictions This Week

7/7 correct predictions on top-tier matches.

MATCH	PREDICTION	RESULT
Vitality 2-0 GamerLegion	79% Vitality	CORRECT
Natus Vincere 2-0 FaZe	71% Natus Vinc	CORRECT
Natus Vincere 2-0 GamerLegion	68% Natus Vinc	CORRECT
Vitality 2-1 G2	75% Vitality	CORRECT
Natus Vincere 2-0 FaZe	71% Natus Vinc	CORRECT
Vitality 2-1 FUT	76% Vitality	CORRECT
Legacy 3-2 9z	62% Legacy	CORRECT

analysis Apr 27, 2026 by cs2predict

Model of the Week W18 — NEXUS (100.0%)

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 18 · Apr 20 – Apr 27, 2026

Models ranked

205

Predictions

Matches

100.0%

Best accuracy

0.0664

Brier Score

0.2942

Log Loss

This week (Week 18 · Apr 20 – Apr 27, 2026) we analyzed 13 top-tier CS2 matches across 24 prediction models. NEXUS dominated with 100.0% accuracy (9/9 correct), ahead of HIGH-ORACLE at 100.0%. NEXUS achieved a Brier Score of 0.0664 and Log Loss of 0.2942.

🏆 Model of the Week: NEXUS

NEXUS had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 9 out of 9 matches.

🥇

NEXUS

APEX + ORACLE both >65% same direction

NEXUS showed excellent performance with 100.0% accuracy across 9 predictions (9 correct, 0 wrong).

100.0%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W17: 100.0% (9)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	NEXUS	100.0%	9	9	0
#2	HIGH-ORACLE	100.0%	8	8	0
#3	ELOHQ	100.0%	4	4	0
#4	TIER	100.0%	4	4	0
#5	TIER2	100.0%	4	4	0
#6	SENTINEL	100.0%	3	3	0
#7	STRONGHOLD	100.0%	3	3	0
#8	PHANTOM	90.0%	10	9	1
#9	ORACLE	81.8%	11	9	2
#10	EAGLE	81.8%	11	9	2
#11	ELOFACE	77.8%	9	7	2
#12	SQUAD	75.0%	12	9	3
#13	SOS	75.0%	12	9	3
#14	APEX	75.0%	12	9	3
#15	ELO	72.7%	11	8	3
#16	WR10C	46.2%	13	6	7
#17	FORM	36.4%	11	4	7
#18	OPEN	30.0%	10	3	7
#19	XGPRO	25.0%	8	2	6
#20	MAJOR	25.0%	8	2	6
#21	WR10	25.0%	8	2	6
#22	WR10P	22.2%	9	2	7
#23	MIND	16.7%	12	2	10
#24	STREAK	0.0%	3	0	3

🎮 NEXUS Predictions This Week

9/9 correct predictions on top-tier matches.

MATCH	PREDICTION	RESULT
TYLOO 1-0 Sensation	76% TYLOO	CORRECT
9z 2-0 Vasco	74% 9z	CORRECT
Wildcard 2-0 FRZ	68% Wildcard	CORRECT
BIG 0-2 HEROIC	68% HEROIC	CORRECT
Alliance 2-0 Oxuji	69% Alliance	CORRECT
Legacy 2-0 Keyd Stars	78% Legacy	CORRECT
9z 2-0 Vasco	80% 9z	CORRECT
Legacy 2-0 ALZON	78% Legacy	CORRECT
9z 2-0 ALKA	80% 9z	CORRECT

analysis Apr 20, 2026 by cs2predict

Model of the Week W17 — NEXUS (100.0%)

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 17 · Apr 13 – Apr 20, 2026

Models ranked

520

Predictions

Matches

100.0%

Best accuracy

0.0884

Brier Score

0.3524

Log Loss

This week (Week 17 · Apr 13 – Apr 20, 2026) we analyzed 30 top-tier CS2 matches across 25 prediction models. NEXUS dominated with 100.0% accuracy (10/10 correct), ahead of STRONGHOLD at 100.0%. NEXUS achieved a Brier Score of 0.0884 and Log Loss of 0.3524.

🏆 Model of the Week: NEXUS

NEXUS had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 10 out of 10 matches.

🥇

NEXUS

APEX + ORACLE both >65% same direction

NEXUS showed excellent performance with 100.0% accuracy across 10 predictions (10 correct, 0 wrong).

100.0%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W16: 100.0% (10)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	NEXUS	100.0%	10	10	0
#2	STRONGHOLD	100.0%	7	7	0
#3	TRIBUNAL	100.0%	4	4	0
#4	TIER3	93.8%	16	15	1
#5	ELOHQ	90.9%	22	20	2
#6	TIER2	89.5%	19	17	2
#7	TIER	88.9%	18	16	2
#8	HIGH-ORACLE	87.5%	8	7	1
#9	APEX	85.2%	27	23	4
#10	SOS	80.0%	25	20	5
#11	ELO	79.3%	29	23	6
#12	ELOFACE	78.6%	28	22	6
#13	PHANTOM	78.6%	28	22	6
#14	ORACLE	78.6%	28	22	6
#15	WR10C	73.3%	30	22	8
#16	WR10P	73.1%	26	19	7
#17	EAGLE	72.0%	25	18	7
#18	STREAK	71.4%	14	10	4
#19	WR10	70.8%	24	17	7
#20	SQUAD	70.4%	27	19	8
#21	MAJOR	64.7%	17	11	6
#22	FORM	62.5%	24	15	9
#23	XGPRO	62.5%	16	10	6
#24	OPEN	60.0%	25	15	10
#25	MIND	56.5%	23	13	10

🎮 NEXUS Predictions This Week

10/10 correct predictions on top-tier matches.

MATCH	PREDICTION	RESULT
Spirit 0-3 Vitality	71% Vitality	CORRECT
FURIA 0-2 Vitality	68% Vitality	CORRECT
Vitality 2-0 Natus Vincere	72% Vitality	CORRECT
HEROIC 1-0 illwill	73% HEROIC	CORRECT
RED Canids 1-2 Spirit	68% Spirit	CORRECT
FURIA 2-0 Passion UA	71% FURIA	CORRECT
Legacy 1-2 MOUZ	72% MOUZ	CORRECT
3DMAX 0-2 Falcons	70% Falcons	CORRECT
Spirit 2-0 Liquid	68% Spirit	CORRECT
Gentle Mates 1-2 G2	71% G2	CORRECT

analysis Apr 13, 2026 by cs2predict

Model of the Week W16 — NEXUS (100.0%)

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 16 · Apr 06 – Apr 13, 2026

Models ranked

858

Predictions

Matches

100.0%

Best accuracy

0.0893

Brier Score

0.3546

Log Loss

This week (Week 16 · Apr 06 – Apr 13, 2026) we analyzed 50 top-tier CS2 matches across 25 prediction models. NEXUS dominated with 100.0% accuracy (12/12 correct), ahead of STRONGHOLD at 100.0%. NEXUS achieved a Brier Score of 0.0893 and Log Loss of 0.3546.

🏆 Model of the Week: NEXUS

NEXUS had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 12 out of 12 matches.

🥇

NEXUS

APEX + ORACLE both >65% same direction

NEXUS showed excellent performance with 100.0% accuracy across 12 predictions (12 correct, 0 wrong).

100.0%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W15: 100.0% (2)W16: 100.0% (10)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	NEXUS	100.0%	12	12	0
#2	STRONGHOLD	100.0%	9	9	0
#3	TRIBUNAL	100.0%	9	9	0
#4	TIER3	95.2%	21	20	1
#5	TIER2	86.2%	29	25	4
#6	TIER	85.7%	28	24	4
#7	HIGH-ORACLE	83.3%	12	10	2
#8	ELOHQ	82.9%	35	29	6
#9	APEX	77.8%	45	35	10
#10	ORACLE	77.3%	44	34	10
#11	PHANTOM	76.7%	43	33	10
#12	SOS	76.2%	42	32	10
#13	ELO	76.1%	46	35	11
#14	ELOFACE	74.4%	43	32	11
#15	WR10	71.1%	38	27	11
#16	STREAK	70.4%	27	19	8
#17	WR10C	67.3%	49	33	16
#18	WR10P	65.9%	44	29	15
#19	EAGLE	65.1%	43	28	15
#20	MAJOR	64.7%	34	22	12
#21	FORM	64.3%	42	27	15
#22	XGPRO	63.6%	33	21	12
#23	OPEN	61.0%	41	25	16
#24	SQUAD	59.6%	47	28	19
#25	MIND	59.5%	42	25	17

🎮 NEXUS Predictions This Week

12/12 correct predictions on top-tier matches.

MATCH	PREDICTION	RESULT
Spirit 0-3 Vitality	71% Vitality	CORRECT
FURIA 0-2 Vitality	68% Vitality	CORRECT
Vitality 2-0 Natus Vincere	72% Vitality	CORRECT
HEROIC 1-0 illwill	73% HEROIC	CORRECT
RED Canids 1-2 Spirit	68% Spirit	CORRECT
FURIA 2-0 Passion UA	71% FURIA	CORRECT
Legacy 1-2 MOUZ	72% MOUZ	CORRECT
3DMAX 0-2 Falcons	70% Falcons	CORRECT
Spirit 2-0 Liquid	68% Spirit	CORRECT
Gentle Mates 1-2 G2	71% G2	CORRECT
3DMAX 0-2 The MongolZ	69% The Mongol	CORRECT
BC.Game 2-1 Voca	70% BC.Game	CORRECT

analysis Apr 06, 2026 by cs2predict

Model of the Week W15 — NEXUS (100.0%)

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 15 · Mar 30 – Apr 06, 2026

Models ranked

2658

Predictions

193

Matches

100.0%

Best accuracy

0.0861

Brier Score

0.3457

Log Loss

This week (Week 15 · Mar 30 – Apr 06, 2026) we analyzed 193 top-tier CS2 matches across 27 prediction models. NEXUS dominated with 100.0% accuracy (22/22 correct), ahead of TRIBUNAL at 100.0%. NEXUS achieved a Brier Score of 0.0861 and Log Loss of 0.3457.

🏆 Model of the Week: NEXUS

NEXUS had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 22 out of 22 matches.

🥇

NEXUS

APEX + ORACLE both >65% same direction

NEXUS showed excellent performance with 100.0% accuracy across 22 predictions (22 correct, 0 wrong).

100.0%

Accuracy

Predictions

Correct

Wrong

Weekly breakdown

W14: 100.0% (10)W15: 100.0% (2)W16: 100.0% (10)

📊 Full Rankings This Week

Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

Rank	Model	Accuracy	Predictions	Correct	Wrong
#1	NEXUS	100.0%	22	22	0
#2	TRIBUNAL	100.0%	18	18	0
#3	HIGH-ORACLE	86.4%	22	19	3
#4	TIER3	84.1%	44	37	7
#5	VANGUARD	83.3%	24	20	4
#6	SENTINEL	82.1%	39	32	7
#7	STRONGHOLD	81.0%	58	47	11
#8	TIER	79.7%	79	63	16
#9	ORACLE	77.1%	70	54	16
#10	ELOHQ	76.9%	104	80	24
#11	TIER2	75.0%	88	66	22
#12	APEX	74.6%	71	53	18
#13	PHANTOM	72.9%	70	51	19
#14	SOS	67.5%	151	102	49
#15	ELOFACE	65.3%	144	94	50
#16	STREAK	64.5%	110	71	39
#17	EAGLE	64.3%	70	45	25
#18	ELO	64.1%	156	100	56
#19	WR10	64.0%	125	80	45
#20	WR10C	60.5%	167	101	66
#21	MAJOR	60.1%	138	83	55
#22	OPEN	60.0%	145	87	58
#23	XGPRO	59.9%	137	82	55
#24	SQUAD	54.3%	186	101	85
#25	FORM	50.3%	145	73	72
#26	WR10P	48.1%	133	64	69
#27	MIND	45.1%	142	64	78

🎮 NEXUS Predictions This Week

22/22 correct predictions on top-tier matches.

MATCH	PREDICTION	RESULT
Spirit 0-3 Vitality	71% Vitality	CORRECT
FURIA 0-2 Vitality	68% Vitality	CORRECT
Vitality 2-0 Natus Vincere	72% Vitality	CORRECT
HEROIC 1-0 illwill	73% HEROIC	CORRECT
RED Canids 1-2 Spirit	68% Spirit	CORRECT
FURIA 2-0 Passion UA	71% FURIA	CORRECT
Legacy 1-2 MOUZ	72% MOUZ	CORRECT
3DMAX 0-2 Falcons	70% Falcons	CORRECT
Spirit 2-0 Liquid	68% Spirit	CORRECT
Gentle Mates 1-2 G2	71% G2	CORRECT
3DMAX 0-2 The MongolZ	69% The Mongol	CORRECT
BC.Game 2-1 Voca	70% BC.Game	CORRECT
paiN 3-1 Gaimin Gladiators	72% paiN	CORRECT
PARIVISION 2-0 FOKUS	74% PARIVISION	CORRECT
3DMAX 2-1 Voca	74% 3DMAX	CORRECT
FaZe 2-0 CYBERSHOKE	68% FaZe	CORRECT
PARIVISION 2-1 Legacy	69% PARIVISION	CORRECT
paiN 2-1 ShindeN	81% paiN	CORRECT
GamerLegion 0-2 BetBoom	68% BetBoom	CORRECT
Astralis 2-0 MIBR	68% Astralis	CORRECT
B8 2-0 Wildcard	68% B8	CORRECT
NRG 2-0 Voca	77% NRG	CORRECT