News, updates and analysis
Monthly leaderboard · May 2026 results · published June 2026
47 predictors placed 2410 settled wagers this month. Paranormal led on accuracy at 50.8% Wilson WR, while tier0_s netted +$1043.99 in profit. Average accuracy across the field: 50.3%.
Highest accuracy by Wilson lower bound (5+ settled wagers required for the knife giveaway).
Highest net USD return (winnings minus stakes).
The Knife Giveaway was a one-month special. $50 / $50 monthly cash prizes for Top Win Rate and Top Profit continue throughout June — same eligibility (3+ settled predictions). Place predictions on the match list and track standings on the Leaderboard.
Big thanks to everyone who placed predictions in May. See you on the June board.
Weekly leaderboard · Week 22 results (May 25 – May 31, 2026) · published Week 23
47 predictors placed 537 settled wagers this week (Week 22 results (May 25 – May 31, 2026) · published Week 23). Forester led on accuracy at 59.6% Wilson, while tAk netted +$400.96 in profit. Average accuracy across the field: 24.6%.
Highest accuracy by Wilson lower bound (3+ settled wagers required to qualify).

Highest net USD return (winnings minus stakes). Green bars are winners, red are net losers.

Want next week's prize?
Top-1 in each category wins +$20. Place 3+ predictions on the match list · check the live leaderboard.
Monthly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · June 2026
Based on May 2026 data, we tracked 139 top-tier CS2 matches across 26 prediction models with a total of 2456 predictions. The average model accuracy was 64.0%, with a spread of 27.6% between the best and worst performing models.
STRONGHOLD takes the top spot with 78.4% accuracy, followed by TIER3 at 75.4% and TIER at 72.0%.
STRONGHOLD showed excellent performance with 78.4% accuracy across 37 predictions (29 correct, 8 wrong). Best week: W18 at 100.0%, weakest: W22 at 40.0%.


TIER3 showed excellent performance with 75.4% accuracy across 57 predictions (43 correct, 14 wrong). Best week: W18 at 100.0%, weakest: W22 at 33.3%.


TIER showed strong performance with 72.0% accuracy across 75 predictions (54 correct, 21 wrong). Best week: W18 at 80.0%, weakest: W22 at 37.5%.


Below is the complete ranking of all models. Models highlighted in blue are in the top 3. The bar chart shows relative performance at a glance.

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 23 · May 25 – May 31, 2026
This week (Week 23 · May 25 – May 31, 2026) we analyzed 23 top-tier CS2 matches across 24 prediction models. SQUAD dominated with 60.9% accuracy (14/23 correct), ahead of MIND at 50.0%. SQUAD achieved a Brier Score of 0.2732 and Log Loss of 0.8257.
SQUAD edged out the competition this week, though accuracy across all models was moderate.
SQUAD showed decent performance with 60.9% accuracy across 23 predictions (14 correct, 9 wrong).


Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

14/23 correct predictions on top-tier matches.
| MATCH | PREDICTION | RESULT |
|---|---|---|
| FOKUS 2-1 Nemiga | 90% FOKUS | CORRECT |
| Gentle Mates 0-2 Nemesis | 81% Nemesis | CORRECT |
| TDK 2-1 OG | 71% OG | WRONG |
| 100 Thieves 1-2 Nemesis | 67% Nemesis | CORRECT |
| magic 1-2 Ninjas in Pyjamas | 72% Ninjas in | CORRECT |
| FOKUS 2-1 fnatic | 77% FOKUS | CORRECT |
| Gentle Mates 2-0 GenOne | 89% Gentle Mat | CORRECT |
| Ninjas in Pyjamas 2-0 FaZe | 67% Ninjas in | CORRECT |
| Tricked 0-2 Nemiga | 89% Nemiga | CORRECT |
| Gentle Mates 2-1 Eternal Fire | 79% Gentle Mat | CORRECT |
| FaZe 2-0 Sharks | 70% Sharks | WRONG |
| 9z 1-2 FaZe | 68% FaZe | CORRECT |
| Nemesis 2-3 TDK | 88% Nemesis | WRONG |
| magic 2-1 FaZe | 56% FaZe | WRONG |
| HEROIC 1-2 9z | 72% HEROIC | WRONG |
| 3DMAX 1-2 Alliance | 93% 3DMAX | WRONG |
| 9z 1-2 Sharks | 83% Sharks | CORRECT |
| Eternal Fire 2-1 fnatic | 77% fnatic | WRONG |
| FaZe 2-0 Alliance | 61% Alliance | WRONG |
| Gentle Mates 2-0 ALGO | 73% Gentle Mat | CORRECT |
| HEROIC 0-2 Ninjas in Pyjamas | 64% Ninjas in | CORRECT |
| 3DMAX 0-2 magic | 96% 3DMAX | WRONG |
| fnatic 2-0 Rune Eaters | 64% fnatic | CORRECT |
60.9% as the best model is the lowest weekly leader we've ever recorded on cs2predict.gg — normal weeks see the top model land between 75% and 85%. The drop wasn't a data glitch (we verified every match against HLTV directly). It was a real upset wave driven by an unusually packed tournament calendar.
Three top-tier events ran in parallel this stretch:
Plus Major qualifiers leading into Cologne. Top organisations split rosters, tested experimental lineups, and showed visible signs of late-season fatigue. The result: 7 matches where every single one of 18–22 active models was wrong.
| Match | Tournament | What happened |
|---|---|---|
| MongolZ vs B8 | CS Asia Championships | B8 won 2-1 (huge upset) |
| MIBR vs PARIVISION | CS Asia Championships | MIBR ran out 2-0 |
| NaVi vs Vitality | IEM Atlanta | NaVi took it 2-1 |
| B8 vs FUT | IEM Atlanta | B8 won 2-0 again |
| PARIVISION vs G2 | PGL Astana | G2 needed 3 maps |
| PARIVISION vs 9z | PGL Astana | 9z swept 2-0 |
| Aurora vs HEROIC | PGL Astana | HEROIC took it 2-0 |
The pattern: B8 (Ukrainian Tier-2) and PARIVISION (rising Russian roster) were involved in 5 of 7 of these matches. B8 ran the Cinderella story — taking down both MongolZ AND FUT in the same week.
When ELO-based, rank-based, and form-based models all converge on the same prediction and are all wrong, the only model that can stand out is one looking at something different. SQUAD does exactly that: it weights individual player ratings rather than team-level rank.
For a week dominated by:
SQUAD's player-first approach happened to fit. 60.9% isn't great absolutely — it's just that team-based models did far worse, because their signals were polluted by mid-tournament roster changes.
CS2's 2026 calendar is more packed than ever. When 3+ tournaments overlap, expect lower model agreement, more upsets in matches where rosters changed mid-week, and player-based models (SQUAD, WR10) gaining a temporary edge.
We're not adjusting any model weights based on a single week — that would be classic over-fitting. But it's a useful reminder: models are statistical, not magical. Stable meta produces high accuracy. Chaotic weeks produce chaotic predictions.
Major Cologne Stage 1 kicks off this week (June 2). It'll be interesting to see how models behave once the scene refocuses on one big event.
Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 22 · May 18 – May 24, 2026
This week (Week 22 · May 18 – May 24, 2026) we analyzed 34 top-tier CS2 matches across 25 prediction models. WR10P dominated with 75.8% accuracy (25/33 correct), ahead of TRIBUNAL at 75.0%. WR10P achieved a Brier Score of 0.1981 and Log Loss of 0.5864.
WR10P had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 25 out of 33 matches.
WR10P showed excellent performance with 75.8% accuracy across 33 predictions (25 correct, 8 wrong).


Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

25/33 correct predictions on top-tier matches.
Weekly leaderboard · Week 21 results (May 18 – May 24, 2026) · published Week 22
47 predictors placed 555 settled wagers this week (Week 21 results (May 18 – May 24, 2026) · published Week 22). Paranormal led on accuracy at 57.8% Wilson, while Paranormal netted +$296.61 in profit. Average accuracy across the field: 27.0%.
Highest accuracy by Wilson lower bound (3+ settled wagers required to qualify).

Highest net USD return (winnings minus stakes). Green bars are winners, red are net losers.

Want next week's prize?
Top-1 in each category wins +$20. Place 3+ predictions on the match list · check the live leaderboard.
Based on your feedback and requests, we've reshuffled the model lineup across subscription tiers — to make more useful models available right away without a subscription, and to give BASIC subscribers noticeably more options to work with. Big thanks to everyone who wrote in via support and Discord — this update is built directly from your suggestions.
Even without a subscription, you now have two additional models with different decision logic, ready to try on upcoming matches.
Five additional models that previously required PRO are now open to BASIC subscribers too.
See the full lineup per tier on the Models leaderboard. Keep the feedback coming — it genuinely shapes how we develop the site.
We're rolling out a new section on CS2PREDICT: Pickem Predictions. Each CS2 Major has an Pickem Challenge — pick the team that goes 3-0, the team that goes 0-3, and the 7 teams that advance through the Swiss stage. Max 15 points (4 + 4 + 7). Hundreds of thousands of fans play it every Major. Now you can see what AI thinks before locking in your own pick.
The Stage 1 (Challengers) page is up: /pickem/iem-cologne-major-2026-stage-1/
Stage 2 — the Legends stage with the 8 invited top-seeds joined by the 8 Stage-1 advancers — gets its own Pickem page as soon as the field is finalized on HLTV. Same format: AI consensus on top, per-model breakdown below. Watch this space.
We're planning a community Pickem challenge right alongside the AI: log in, submit your own 9 picks, and compete against the 27 models after the Major wraps. Final leaderboard will show user scores intermixed with AI scores — beat the algorithms and prove your CS2 sense.
Details (sign-up, prizes, timing) coming in a follow-up post. If you want a heads-up when entries open, log in and watch the Pickem section.
Each model has its own per-match win-probability logic (ELO, recent form, head-to-head, tactical metrics). For Pickem we run 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the full 16-team Swiss bracket per model — every potential pairing flipped by a biased coin weighted by that model's match-level probability. The 3-0 pick = the team that finished without a loss most often, 0-3 = the team that finished winless most often, advance = top-7 by P(3-1 ∪ 3-2).
The simulation re-runs every time Cologne's seeding or team-strength data changes, until lock time (24h before the first Swiss match).
Weekly leaderboard · Week 20 results (May 11 – May 17, 2026) · published Week 21
47 predictors placed 647 settled wagers this week (Week 20 results (May 11 – May 17, 2026) · published Week 21). R0Kk-_ led on accuracy at 67.6% Wilson, while tier0_s netted +$701.30 in profit. Average accuracy across the field: 26.5%.
Highest accuracy by Wilson lower bound (3+ settled wagers required to qualify).

Highest net USD return (winnings minus stakes). Green bars are winners, red are net losers.

Want next week's prize?
Top-1 in each category wins +$20. Place 3+ predictions on the match list · check the live leaderboard.
Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 21 · May 11 – May 17, 2026
This week (Week 21 · May 11 – May 17, 2026) we analyzed 57 top-tier CS2 matches across 25 prediction models. STRONGHOLD dominated with 81.8% accuracy (9/11 correct), ahead of TIER at 80.0%. STRONGHOLD achieved a Brier Score of 0.1542 and Log Loss of 0.4943.
STRONGHOLD had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 9 out of 11 matches.
STRONGHOLD showed excellent performance with 81.8% accuracy across 11 predictions (9 correct, 2 wrong).


Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

9/11 correct predictions on top-tier matches.
| MATCH | PREDICTION | RESULT |
|---|---|---|
| GamerLegion 0-3 Natus Vincere | 68% Natus Vinc | CORRECT |
| BetBoom 0-2 Natus Vincere | 77% Natus Vinc | CORRECT |
| B8 0-2 Vitality | 80% Vitality | CORRECT |
| SINNERS 0-2 Astralis | 70% Astralis | CORRECT |
| FaZe 0-2 Vitality | 81% Vitality | CORRECT |
| BetBoom 2-1 Vitality | 83% Vitality | WRONG |
| Natus Vincere 2-1 GamerLegion | 69% Natus Vinc | CORRECT |
| Monte 2-1 The Huns | 67% Monte | CORRECT |
| HEROIC 1-2 magic | 62% HEROIC | WRONG |
| Natus Vincere 2-0 Passion UA | 74% Natus Vinc | CORRECT |
| Vitality 2-0 BC.Game | 84% Vitality | CORRECT |
Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 20 · May 04 – May 10, 2026
This week (Week 20 · May 04 – May 10, 2026) we analyzed 16 top-tier CS2 matches across 25 prediction models. STRONGHOLD dominated with 100.0% accuracy (8/8 correct), ahead of HIGH-ORACLE at 100.0%. STRONGHOLD achieved a Brier Score of 0.0677 and Log Loss of 0.2985.
STRONGHOLD had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 8 out of 8 matches.
STRONGHOLD showed excellent performance with 100.0% accuracy across 8 predictions (8 correct, 0 wrong).


Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

8/8 correct predictions on top-tier matches.
| MATCH | PREDICTION | RESULT |
|---|---|---|
| Monte 2-0 magic | 65% Monte | CORRECT |
| PARIVISION 2-0 Fisher College | 75% PARIVISION | CORRECT |
| Aurora 2-0 The Huns | 76% Aurora | CORRECT |
| Falcons 2-0 K27 | 78% Falcons | CORRECT |
| Spirit 2-0 The Huns | 79% Spirit | CORRECT |
| MOUZ 2-1 Gentle Mates | 72% MOUZ | CORRECT |
| The MongolZ 2-0 magic | 76% The Mongol | CORRECT |
| G2 2-0 Fisher College | 73% G2 | CORRECT |
Weekly leaderboard · Week 19 results (May 04 – May 10, 2026) · published Week 20
30 predictors placed 505 settled wagers this week (Week 19 results (May 04 – May 10, 2026) · published Week 20). Tw1nk1e17 led on accuracy at 49.1% Wilson, while Goofy netted +$413.28 in profit. Average accuracy across the field: 28.0%.
Highest accuracy by Wilson lower bound (3+ settled wagers required to qualify).

Highest net USD return (winnings minus stakes). Green bars are winners, red are net losers.

Want next week's prize?
Top-1 in each category wins +$20. Place 3+ predictions on the match list · check the live leaderboard.
Monthly leaderboard · April 2026 results · published May 2026
30 predictors placed 404 settled wagers this month (April 2026 results · published May 2026). Viresse led on accuracy at 56.5% Wilson, while lenci netted +$316.68 in profit. Average accuracy across the field: 27.5%.
Highest accuracy by Wilson lower bound (3+ settled wagers required to qualify).

Highest net USD return (winnings minus stakes). Green bars are winners, red are net losers.

Want next month's prize?
Top-1 in each category wins +$50. Place 3+ predictions on the match list · check the live leaderboard.
Weekly leaderboard · Week 18 results (Apr 27 – May 03, 2026) · published Week 19
30 predictors placed 653 settled wagers this week (Week 18 results (Apr 27 – May 03, 2026) · published Week 19). AZIDOT led on accuracy at 55.3% Wilson, while lenci netted +$417.81 in profit. Average accuracy across the field: 31.2%.
Highest accuracy by Wilson lower bound (3+ settled wagers required to qualify).

Highest net USD return (winnings minus stakes). Green bars are winners, red are net losers.

Want next week's prize?
Top-1 in each category wins +$20. Place 3+ predictions on the match list · check the live leaderboard.
Monthly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · May 2026
Based on April 2026 data, we tracked 174 top-tier CS2 matches across 27 prediction models with a total of 2520 predictions. The average model accuracy was 72.3%, with a spread of 53.0% between the best and worst performing models.
TRIBUNAL takes the top spot with 100.0% accuracy, followed by NEXUS at 97.1% and SENTINEL at 92.3%.
TRIBUNAL showed excellent performance with 100.0% accuracy across 20 predictions (20 correct, 0 wrong).


NEXUS showed excellent performance with 97.1% accuracy across 35 predictions (34 correct, 1 wrong). Best week: W14 at 100.0%, weakest: W18 at 75.0%.


SENTINEL showed excellent performance with 92.3% accuracy across 26 predictions (24 correct, 2 wrong). Best week: W15 at 100.0%, weakest: W14 at 90.5%.


Below is the complete ranking of all models. Models highlighted in blue are in the top 3. The bar chart shows relative performance at a glance.

Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 19 · Apr 27 – May 03, 2026
This week (Week 19 · Apr 27 – May 03, 2026) we analyzed 20 top-tier CS2 matches across 24 prediction models. STRONGHOLD dominated with 100.0% accuracy (7/7 correct), ahead of STREAK at 91.7%. STRONGHOLD achieved a Brier Score of 0.0822 and Log Loss of 0.334.
STRONGHOLD had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 7 out of 7 matches.
STRONGHOLD showed excellent performance with 100.0% accuracy across 7 predictions (7 correct, 0 wrong).


Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.

7/7 correct predictions on top-tier matches.
| MATCH | PREDICTION | RESULT |
|---|---|---|
| Vitality 2-0 GamerLegion | 79% Vitality | CORRECT |
| Natus Vincere 2-0 FaZe | 71% Natus Vinc | CORRECT |
| Natus Vincere 2-0 GamerLegion | 68% Natus Vinc | CORRECT |
| Vitality 2-1 G2 | 75% Vitality | CORRECT |
| Natus Vincere 2-0 FaZe | 71% Natus Vinc | CORRECT |
| Vitality 2-1 FUT | 76% Vitality | CORRECT |
| Legacy 3-2 9z | 62% Legacy | CORRECT |
Our first community giveaway is live. Two real CS2 knives — one for each Leaderboard category — go to the top predictors of May 2026.
By Win Rate
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Lore
Field-Tested
By Profit
★ Navaja Knife | Fade
Factory New
Nothing extra to do — just predict matches as you normally would. Every wager you settle between May 1 00:00 UTC and May 31 23:59 UTC counts toward the May leaderboard. Whoever sits at the top of each column at the end of May wins.
Within 1 day of the contest closing we will reach out to the winners. Provide your Steam trade URL and the knife is sent over Steam Trade.
Track your standing any time on the Leaderboard. Good luck.
Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 18 · Apr 20 – Apr 27, 2026
This week (Week 18 · Apr 20 – Apr 27, 2026) we analyzed 13 top-tier CS2 matches across 24 prediction models. NEXUS dominated with 100.0% accuracy (9/9 correct), ahead of HIGH-ORACLE at 100.0%. NEXUS achieved a Brier Score of 0.0664 and Log Loss of 0.2942.
NEXUS had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 9 out of 9 matches.
NEXUS showed excellent performance with 100.0% accuracy across 9 predictions (9 correct, 0 wrong).
Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.
9/9 correct predictions on top-tier matches.
| MATCH | PREDICTION | RESULT |
|---|---|---|
| TYLOO 1-0 Sensation | 76% TYLOO | CORRECT |
| 9z 2-0 Vasco | 74% 9z | CORRECT |
| Wildcard 2-0 FRZ | 68% Wildcard | CORRECT |
| BIG 0-2 HEROIC | 68% HEROIC | CORRECT |
| Alliance 2-0 Oxuji | 69% Alliance | CORRECT |
| Legacy 2-0 Keyd Stars | 78% Legacy | CORRECT |
| 9z 2-0 Vasco | 80% 9z | CORRECT |
| Legacy 2-0 ALZON | 78% Legacy | CORRECT |
| 9z 2-0 ALKA | 80% 9z | CORRECT |
Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 17 · Apr 13 – Apr 20, 2026
This week (Week 17 · Apr 13 – Apr 20, 2026) we analyzed 30 top-tier CS2 matches across 25 prediction models. NEXUS dominated with 100.0% accuracy (10/10 correct), ahead of STRONGHOLD at 100.0%. NEXUS achieved a Brier Score of 0.0884 and Log Loss of 0.3524.
NEXUS had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 10 out of 10 matches.
NEXUS showed excellent performance with 100.0% accuracy across 10 predictions (10 correct, 0 wrong).
Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.
10/10 correct predictions on top-tier matches.
| MATCH | PREDICTION | RESULT |
|---|---|---|
| Spirit 0-3 Vitality | 71% Vitality | CORRECT |
| FURIA 0-2 Vitality | 68% Vitality | CORRECT |
| Vitality 2-0 Natus Vincere | 72% Vitality | CORRECT |
| HEROIC 1-0 illwill | 73% HEROIC | CORRECT |
| RED Canids 1-2 Spirit | 68% Spirit | CORRECT |
| FURIA 2-0 Passion UA | 71% FURIA | CORRECT |
| Legacy 1-2 MOUZ | 72% MOUZ | CORRECT |
| 3DMAX 0-2 Falcons | 70% Falcons | CORRECT |
| Spirit 2-0 Liquid | 68% Spirit | CORRECT |
| Gentle Mates 1-2 G2 | 71% G2 | CORRECT |
Weekly digest · Top-tier CS2 matches · Week 16 · Apr 06 – Apr 13, 2026
This week (Week 16 · Apr 06 – Apr 13, 2026) we analyzed 50 top-tier CS2 matches across 25 prediction models. NEXUS dominated with 100.0% accuracy (12/12 correct), ahead of STRONGHOLD at 100.0%. NEXUS achieved a Brier Score of 0.0893 and Log Loss of 0.3546.
NEXUS had an outstanding week, correctly predicting 12 out of 12 matches.
NEXUS showed excellent performance with 100.0% accuracy across 12 predictions (12 correct, 0 wrong).
Complete model performance for the week. The leader is highlighted.
12/12 correct predictions on top-tier matches.
| MATCH | PREDICTION | RESULT |
|---|---|---|
| Spirit 0-3 Vitality | 71% Vitality | CORRECT |
| FURIA 0-2 Vitality | 68% Vitality | CORRECT |
| Vitality 2-0 Natus Vincere | 72% Vitality | CORRECT |
| HEROIC 1-0 illwill | 73% HEROIC | CORRECT |
| RED Canids 1-2 Spirit | 68% Spirit | CORRECT |
| FURIA 2-0 Passion UA | 71% FURIA | CORRECT |
| Legacy 1-2 MOUZ | 72% MOUZ | CORRECT |
| 3DMAX 0-2 Falcons | 70% Falcons | CORRECT |
| Spirit 2-0 Liquid | 68% Spirit | CORRECT |
| Gentle Mates 1-2 G2 | 71% G2 | CORRECT |
| 3DMAX 0-2 The MongolZ | 69% The Mongol | CORRECT |
| BC.Game 2-1 Voca | 70% BC.Game | CORRECT |