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Match Prediction Engine
Top models accuracy · top-tier VANGUARD 86.1%    SENTINEL 84.1%    STRONGHOLD 83.1%    TRIBUNAL 83.0%    TIER3ELO 78.9%    NEXUS 77.4%    TIERELO 76.9%    TIER2ELO 74.6%    ELOHQ 72.7%    HIGHORACLE 70.3%   
Last refresh: 2026-05-19 00:00 UTC · Next:
Completed
PGL Astana 2026 · Live · 05:00 · 2026-05-12 · TOP · HLTV →
Model Consensus based on 13 models
No consensus
Models disagree or confidence is below threshold
Prediction Pool · $103.56
70%
30%
MOUZ: $73.33 (3) · x1.41 Aurora: $30.23 (2) · x3.43
Predictions on this match · 5 latest
souv
May 11, 23:07
MOUZ
$5.70
+$8.05
won
tier0_s
May 11, 23:01
MOUZ
$15.02
+$21.21
won
Goofy
May 11, 17:03
Aurora
$24.88
lost
AZIDOT
May 11, 16:53
MOUZ
$52.61
+$74.30
won
doto
May 11, 16:48
Aurora
$5.35
lost
Model Predictions (13)
SQUAD
Player ratings
80.9%
win probability
Aurora
60.7%
accuracy
WR10C
Win rate top-10 + ELO + form
69.1%
win probability
MOUZ
62.6%
accuracy
PHANTOM
ELO + TierELO + WinRate + Tilt (max accuracy)
67.9%
win probability
MOUZ
65.3%
accuracy
APEX
ELO + Form + Streak + SOS (optimized)
66.9%
win probability
MOUZ
65.0%
accuracy
EAGLE
Rank + ELO + ELOHQ + Form + WinRate
64.5%
win probability
MOUZ
55.9%
accuracy
ELO
Team ELO rating
61.0%
win probability
MOUZ
64.5%
accuracy
WR10P
Pure win rate vs top-10
60.6%
win probability
MOUZ
54.2%
accuracy
ELOFACE
ELO + training activity
57.2%
win probability
MOUZ
64.8%
accuracy
FORM
Win rate last 10 matches
55.0%
win probability
Aurora
53.5%
accuracy
WR10
Rank + H2H + win rate vs top-10
54.1%
win probability
MOUZ
67.5%
accuracy
MIND
Psychology + tilt + H2H
53.3%
win probability
Aurora
49.4%
accuracy
OPEN
Rank + form + head-to-head
52.9%
win probability
Aurora
62.1%
accuracy
SOS
Rank + form + opponent strength
52.5%
win probability
Aurora
65.4%
accuracy
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